The global dairy sector: between growth and sustainable transition
Through this White Paper, the Centre National Interprofessionnel de l’Économie Laitière (CNIEL) and SIAL Paris reveal the key dynamics shaping the global dairy sector
Booming production and consumption
The world dairy sector has reached a production level of 950 million metric tonnes in 2022, dominated by Asia (431 Mt) and Europe (234 Mt). This growth is being driven by increased demand in emerging markets, particularly India (+5% per year). At the same time, global consumption is set to rise by 14% between now and 2032, with marked regional disparities: less than 40 kg consumed per capita in Africa and China, compared with more than 300 kg in Europe.
International trade is following this trend, with an expected increase of 41% between 2020 and 2030. Intra-European exports dominate, while imports from Africa and Asia are growing significantly, reflecting a market in the throes of change.
Foodservice as a growth driver
Beyond retail sales, foodservice is becoming a key driver for the sector. Sales of dairy products in this channel are expected to grow by 15% between now and 2028, particularly for cheeses, liquid milk and butter. The African, Asian and Middle Eastern markets are expanding rapidly, with retail sales by value up 72% in Africa and 36% in Asia over the same period.
This dynamic reflects a diversification of uses and an adaptation of the sector to consumer expectations, particularly in terms of the practicality and quality of products.
Sustainable transition underway
Faced with the challenges of climate change and society at large, the dairy sector is resolutely committed to a sustainable transition. The main players, such as Lactalis, Danone and Arla Foods, are aiming for ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, with targets of carbon neutrality by 2050. At the same time, efforts to guarantee animal welfare, improve farming practices and protect biodiversity are increasing on a global scale.
The White Paper also highlights the changing expectations of consumers, who are increasingly sensitive to environmental issues. In 2024, 4 out of 10 people said they had changed their purchasing habits for ethical or climate reasons, reflecting a growing awareness that is shaping the future of the sector.
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